What is the global biofuels market like today and how does the GBC see it evolving?
There are three key biofuels regions today: Brazil, the U.S. and the EU 27 but two regions are expected to see a tremendous growth, Latin America and Asia Pacific between now and 2015. In 2010 alone 30 countries will implement new biofuels mandates. By 2015 the global demand of ethanol and biodiesel should more than double from its 2009 level. Africa is a continent with a large potential for biofuels both for the local and export markets but the industry is still at early stages there and being affected by the developments in other regions.
What is the main issue affecting the global biofuels market?
Sustainability has become a major issue in the U.S. and EU 27 as GHG reduction has become the main driver of the latest biofuels policy developments. These two regions are major drivers of the biofuels market. However sustainability is not an important factor in many developing nations who are warning the West against implementing “green” trade barriers. Some of these countries are nonetheless willing to consider sustainability if it is constructive and preserves food supplies and/or strengthens their exports potential. Sustainability is also the main driver behind next generation biofuels developments. One issue associated with sustainability called Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) could affect severely the global market by restricting biofuels feedstocks but is still being defined at several national and international levels.
What has been the main issue affecting the EU biofuels industry in the last 12 months?
The main issue in the EU has clearly been the implementation of the two main directives affecting the biofuels industry: the Fuel Quality Directive (FQD) and Renewable Energy Directive (RED).
- The FQD increases the blending levels of biofuels but it is testing the integration of the downstream industry as increased ethanol volumes affect the vapor pressure of the blend and resulting emissions. In addition, the car manufacturers have warned that not all existing vehicles are fit to use E10. On the biodiesel side, ACEA, the EU car manufacturers association has expressed concern regarding the possibility of marketing diesel with more than 7vol% FAME in it as allowed under the FQD but unfit for most vehicles.
- The RED introduces a renewable fuels mandate in 2020 but no intermediate target so no real support for biofuels producers. In addition, the sustainability criteria and GHG emission reduction minima could exclude the most widely used biofuels feedstock in the EU, rapeseed, after 2017.
All the topics above are discussed in Hart’s recently released Global Biofuels Outlook to 2015. Covering mainly ethanol and biodiesel, but also ETBE (ethyl tertiary butyl ether), cellulosic ethanol and renewable diesel (also known as non-ester biodiesel) where applicable, the Global Biofuels Outlook captures the current and near-term biofuels picture in 35 countries in the five key regions of the globe. The study reviews local and global drivers, public and fiscal policy developments, current and projected production capacity, and supply and demand projections for 2009, 2010 and 2015. The study shows that despite a number of key issues such as land use and competition for feedstocks supplies for traditional food and feed uses, global use of biofuels is expected to more than double from 2009 to 2015.
Maelle Soares Pinto is speaking at the 2010 World Biofuels Markets Conference in March where he joins 200 of the industry’s most influential speakers.
Click here for a full list of confirmed speakers
Click here for a full conference agenda
About the Global Biofuels Center
Launched in December 2004, the Global Biofuels Center is a service of Hart Energy Consulting and covers exclusively for its members all aspects of the global biofuels market: production and consumption; production capacity and facility developments; technology developments, including second-generation biofuels; fiscal policy, incentives; and more. Its more than 70 members come from the world’s biofuels, refining and automotive industries, as well as governments. With offices in more than 10 worldwide locations, it has provided expertise to major energy companies, key international organizations such as OPEC, CEN, ASTM, JPEC, ISO, APEC, UNPCFV and governmental bodies like the U.S. EPA, SEPA, EU Commission, EU Parliament, U.S. DOE, White House CEQ, Australian ANP and many more… GBC is an unbiased organization – a rarity in the biofuels world. For more information, visit the GBC Web site.